Methodology

+15 — Linguistic Anomaly (Gunning-Fog >22 or spike >20%)
Research basis: Li (2008) "Annual report readability, current earnings, and earnings persistence"; Loughran & McDonald (2011) "When Is a Liability Not a Liability?" — text complexity spikes are statistically significant fraud/distress precursors.

+20/+10/+5 — Strategic Contradiction (HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW)
Semantic comparison of 8-K action against most recent 10-K annual strategic pledge. Example: "Organic growth only" (10-K) + acquisition announcement (8-K) = HIGH contradiction. Credibility score 0–100.

+30 — Information Vacuum (>90 days without filing)
SEC Chair Atkins' 2026 reform replaces quarterly 10-Q with semi-annual 10-S. An 8-K during a 90-day reporting gap carries significantly higher information asymmetry — alt-data boost raised accordingly.

+25/+15 — ESMA New/Increased Short Position
Under EU SSR Art. 9(1), positions ≥0.5% are public. A new significant short position simultaneously with a US 8-K is the strongest cross-market compound confirmation available in public data.

+20/+10 — EBA Bank Stress (CRITICAL/WARNING)
CET1 <10% or NPL >10% for a Ukraine-exposed EU bank, coinciding with a financial sector 8-K, indicates elevated counterparty risk.

+10 — M&A Pre-Signal (SC 13D / S-4 / Form 4 cluster)
SC 13D (activist >5% stake) historically precedes acquisitions in 40%+ of cases. S-4 = merger share registration. Form 4 cluster (3+ insider buys in 14 days) = management confidence.